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Market Views - Economic Outlook 2016

Outlook 2015

International

While Japan is back in recession, we look for modest growth worldwide. However, China’s slowdown and focus on consumer activity will continue to create a serious drag on economies that are highly dependent on exporting basic commodities.

We see some international opportunities in 2016. For example, Chile may bottom in 2016 as they were quick to adjust to falling commodity prices and have substantial reserves. Economies that are commodity importers, such as India, should continue to benefit from low prices. Low tax countries, such as Ireland, may continue to attract foreign business. Pro-business governments, especially in Argentina and the U.K. should help those stock markets move higher in 2016.

Of course, the world remains focused on the rise of international terrorism and rising fears of violence can seriously damage economies. We should expect to see rising defense spending as governments react to public demands for greater security.
Positives Negatives
Positive Some emerging markets are bargains Negative Commodity prices have not bottomed
Positive Low tax economies are more attractive Negative Anticipation of Fed rate hikes boosts the Dollar
Positive Pro-business governments should lead to stronger growth Negative China’s transition to consumer economy slow and painful
Positive Many central banks will remain stimulative
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