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Market Views - Economic Outlook 2014

Outlook 2014

Stocks

The elephant in the room remains the tapering schedule of the Federal Reserve regarding Quantitative Easing (QE). This will likely be a case of "selling on the rumor" and may enable buying opportunities after tapering.

When tapering begins, those companies unloved by Wall Street (such as those with sell recommendations or with low estimated growth) tend to perform better than Wall Street's "darlings."

With energy prices likely to head lower (along with other commodities), the better industry plays will be refiners, energy service and energy transport companies. We would underweight oil exploration.

Homebuilders should provide opportunities so as long as traffic remains robust.

Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) are a risky investment as they typically lose money their first year. Technology stocks are pricey and speculative stocks are extended. We recommend excellent diversification by size and sector in view of the generous level of stock prices.

Following significant advances in 2013, it would not be surprising for equities to undergo limited corrections the next year, but we nevertheless anticipate 2014 to offer positive, not spectacular, returns.
Positives Negatives
Positive Growth in capital goods helps Industrials Negative Mid-term election years generally have poor returns
Positive Strong shipping demand benefits stocks Negative Historically, a new FED Chair is not favorable for stocks
Positive Rising orders helps Manufacturing Negative Excessive margin debt makes stocks riskier
    Negative Valuations extended
Download The Long-term Economic Report (.PDF)   PDF


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You should carefully consider the investment objectives, potential risks, management fees, and charges and expenses of the Fund before investing. The Fund's prospectus contains this and other information about the Fund, and should be read carefully before investing. You may obtain a current copy of the Fund's prospectus by calling 1-800-995-2637 or click here to view or download a prospectus online.

Mid, Small and Micro Cap investing involve greater risk not associated with investing in more established companies, such as greater price volatility, business risk, less liquidity and increased competitive threat. Fund holdings and sector weightings are subject to change without notice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
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