Economic Outlook 2013

International

Europe continues to resist the changes it needs to deal with its debt crisis, preferring talk over cures. The lack of investment in Europe casts doubt on its ability to grow. Russia is totally dependent on oil exports and doomed to follow the large economies of Europe. France's socialist agenda will drive business abroad.

While Europe and the US may be mired in political limbo, the rest of the world will try to get along without them. The large and diverse economies of Brazil and Indonesia can shrug off the end of the commodity rally and focus on internal growth. Commodity importing nations, such as Poland and Turkey will benefit from stable or falling commodity prices. Singapore will gain from the rising regulatory burdens in the West, the Philippines will benefit from peace within its borders and South Korea will continue to respond quickly and efficiently to new sources of demand for its many products. While sensitive to exports, some African nations are growing fast and are low cost producers, so even deepening recession in Europe may not hold them back.

Positives		Negatives
	Growth remains robust in Poland and Turkey		Europe falling deeper into recession
	China's economy is starting to rebound		Commodity rally coming to an end
	Growth is replacing austerity as an objective in Europe		Change of power in Japan creates uncertainty
	East Asian countries have room to maneuver		Investment in Euro-zone has come to a halt
	African economies are showing signs of sustained growth		Fears of the Middle-Income Trap haunt China

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