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Market Views - Economic Outlook 2013

Outlook 2013


Europe continues to resist the changes it needs to deal with its debt crisis, preferring talk over cures. The lack of investment in Europe casts doubt on its ability to grow. Russia is totally dependent on oil exports and doomed to follow the large economies of Europe. France's socialist agenda will drive business abroad.

While Europe and the US may be mired in political limbo, the rest of the world will try to get along without them. The large and diverse economies of Brazil and Indonesia can shrug off the end of the commodity rally and focus on internal growth. Commodity importing nations, such as Poland and Turkey will benefit from stable or falling commodity prices. Singapore will gain from the rising regulatory burdens in the West, the Philippines will benefit from peace within its borders and South Korea will continue to respond quickly and efficiently to new sources of demand for its many products. While sensitive to exports, some African nations are growing fast and are low cost producers, so even deepening recession in Europe may not hold them back.
Positives Negatives
Positive Growth remains robust in Poland and Turkey Negative Europe falling deeper into recession
Positive China's economy is starting to rebound Negative Commodity rally coming to an end
Positive Growth is replacing austerity as an objective in Europe Negative Change of power in Japan creates uncertainty
Positive East Asian countries have room to maneuver Negative Investment in Euro-zone has come to a halt
Positive African economies are showing signs of sustained growth Negative Fears of the Middle-Income Trap haunt China
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