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Market Views - Economic Outlook 2015

Outlook 2015

Interest Rates

Last year we thought strong returns for long term bonds were possible. We do not believe strong returns are likely in 2015 for long term bonds. Bond yields are too low, investors are too optimistic, and the Fed is forecasting a shift to higher interest rates.

However, bonds are likely to be a good defensive strategy, generating income and preserving capital even in the face of crises and threats from overseas. We believe that active management of the bond portfolio may generate higher returns than “buy and hold.”

With the current yield on the 10 year U.S. Treasury Bond around 2.25%, do not rely on returns much stronger than 2.25% over the next 10 years. We would focus on domestic Treasury bonds, high quality Municipal and Corporate issues and we would avoid European and Chinese bonds.
Positives Negatives
Positive Inflation to remain stable Negative Repeat of 2014 returns unlikely
Positive Fed still accommodating Negative Current low yields point to modest returns
Positive U.S. bond yields offer relative value
Positive Bonds tend to do well in crises
Download The Long-term Economic Report (.PDF)   PDF


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You should carefully consider the investment objectives, potential risks, management fees, and charges and expenses of the Fund before investing. The Fund's prospectus contains this and other information about the Fund, and should be read carefully before investing. You may obtain a current copy of the Fund's prospectus by calling 1-800-995-2637 or click here to view or download a prospectus online.

Mid, Small and Micro Cap investing involve greater risk not associated with investing in more established companies, such as greater price volatility, business risk, less liquidity and increased competitive threat. Fund holdings and sector weightings are subject to change without notice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
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