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Market Views - Economic Outlook 2014

Outlook 2014

Economy

The implementation of the Affordable Care Act has created confusion, lowered confidence and hurt business prospects. The economy has difficulty absorbing new regulatory initiatives and health care mandates without a negative impact on GDP growth. These programs offset the natural recovery which capitalistic systems enjoy after recessions. They increase dropouts from the labor force and foster a belief among many of Washington's hostility toward business. It is hard to see a sharp advance in U.S. economic growth in 2014.

All around the world, especially the developed world, economic slowdowns are the norm. World economic growth has been estimated to be only 0.5% in the second quarter and 0% in the third (OECD data). The United States has a leadership position but has limited success in correcting worldwide economic weakness. FED actions have made it increasingly difficult to achieve strong growth in poorer countries, leading to unemployment and unrest, which some call the "Arab Spring."

Positives Negatives
Positive Low cost energy, cheaper commodities Negative Higher taxes hurt growth
Positive World leading technology will help U.S. economy outperform other Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD) countries Negative Increasing regulations hamper GDP expansion
Positive Today's pockets of strength: homes, autos, consumer goods Negative Government actions ineffective and inefficient
Positive Continued FED stimulus, low short term rates    
Positive Deficit spending drives artificial demand for a limited time    
Download The Long-term Economic Report (.PDF)   PDF


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