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Market Views - Economic Outlook 2017

Outlook 2017

International

The world breathlessly waits for the Trump administration to show it's hand. But we believe the global economy will likely grow at a faster rate in 2017 than in 2016.

Central bankers are calling for more stimulative fiscal policy, while holding rates close to historic lows. Inflation is being ushered back into the global economy.

Opportunities are rising in emerging economies producing basic commodities, especially metals. Some of these markets are very reasonably priced and may do well even if the U.S. dollar continues to strengthen. New pro-business governments in Peru, Argentina and other nations should be good for their stock markets. An end to austerity and lower taxes should mean stronger economies in many countries, even in Western Europe.

We believe trade negotiations will be fruitful for the United States and a trade war is unlikely. If evidence of this becomes clearer, emerging markets such as Russia and Indonesia could experience a strong Relief Rally.

Positives Negatives
Positive The global economy is growing faster Negative Migration issues stress European economies
Positive Growing number of new pro-business countries Negative Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) raising rates could scare emerging markets
Positive Europe moving away from austerity Negative China slowdown a drag on global growth
Positive Many commodity producers are cheap
Download The Long-term Economic Report (.PDF)   PDF


The views and opinions expressed are those of James Investment Research, Inc.

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Distributed by ALPS Distributors, Inc. 1290 Broadway, Ste 1100, Denver, CO 80203 (Member FINRA)