Open an account Secure login Tax Information
James Advantage Funds
1.800.99.JAMES (1-800-995-2637)

Market Views - Economic Outlook 2019

Outlook 2019

Economy

Like the planet, typically the economy goes through different seasons. These follow a logical progression with spring followed by summer and so forth. One key difference is certain unusual and impactful events like Pearl Harbor or the Federal Reserves's (Fed) Quantitative Easing program can move the needle and change the economic season.

So what are some of the relevant seasons today?

One such area is early fall. Early fall typically produces solid economic growth. However, a couple of key industries like autos and housing begin to lag.

After early fall is late fall. Here things start to get frosty as winter is coming, but not yet arrived. We usually see recession tripwires being hit, like an inverted yield curve (where short term rates are higher than long term rates) or rising jobless claims after a multi-year low.

Finally, let us consider winter. Typically this is defined as a broad contraction or a recession. This allows the economy to reset for future growth.

We find strong evidence we are presently in early fall. The economy is still growing, but some industries are showing troubling trends. One example is New Homes Sales. Since their peak in late 2017, they are down over 20% (source Bloomberg). Auto Sales, another key component, are also down.

Today’s environment does have a few positives. Oil prices are lower and act as a small tax break. Additionally, bank lending standards for commercial and industrial applicants have been easing. Still, for this cycle, it is reasonable to believe peak economic growth has passed.

Positives Negatives
Positive Oil prices lower Negative Tariffs hurt profits
Positive Commercial loan standards easing Negative Tax cut earnings boost starting to fade
Negative Key Industries struggling (autos, housing)
Download The Long-term Economic Report (.PDF)   PDF


Disclosure

This information is of a general nature and does not constitute financial advice. It does not take into account your individual financial situation, objectives or needs, and should not be relied upon as a substitute for financial or other professional advice to assess, among other things, whether any such information is appropriate for you and/or applicable to your particular circumstances. In addition, this does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, any financial product, service or program. The information contained herein is based on public information we believe to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed.

Investing involves risks, including loss of principal.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

ALPS Distributors, Inc. 1290 Broadway, Ste. 1100, Denver, CO 80203 (Member FINRA). ALPS is not affiliated with James Investment Research, Inc.

*Quantitative Easing is a course of action undertaken by the Federal Reserve to increase the money supply by flooding financial institutions with capital in an effort to promote increased lending and liquidity. **Yield Curve is a line that plots interest rates, at a set point in time, of bonds having equal credit quality but differing maturity dates. ***Shiller Price/Earnings is a valuation measure applied to the U.S. S&P 500 equity market. *G4 nations comprise of Brazil, Germany, Indian and Japan. ****Quantitative Tightening is a contractionary monetary policy applied by a central bank to decrease amount of liquidity within the economy.

Daily NAV & Distributions

Sign Up to receive an email of our quarterly Distributions and our daily NAVs updated
nightly at 7PM EST

Economic Outlook

Download

Forms & Reports

Need a specific form or application?
From Individual Accounts to Corporate Applications, we have them here!
Get Forms
You should carefully consider the investment objectives, potential risks, management fees, and charges and expenses of the Fund before investing. The Fund's prospectus contains this and other information about the Fund, and should be read carefully before investing. You may obtain a current copy of the Fund's prospectus by calling 1-800-995-2637 or click here to view or download a prospectus online.

The performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Current performance may be lower or higher than performance data quoted. The investment return and principal value of an investment in the Fund will fluctuate so that an investor's shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. The average annual total returns assume reinvestment of income, dividends, and capital gains distributions and reflect changes in net asset value. You should note that the James Advantage Funds are professionally managed mutual funds while the indices are unmanaged, do not incur expenses, and are not available for investment.

Mid, Small and Micro Cap investing involve greater risk not associated with investing in more established companies, such as greater price volatility, business risk, less liquidity and increased competitive threat. Fund holdings and sector weightings are subject to change without notice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
© 2019 James Advantage Funds

James Advantage Funds are offered only to US citizens and residents and any information on the website is intended solely for that purpose. Nothing on this web site should be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell any James funds in any jurisdiction where the offer or solicitation would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. For international investors please see Institutional.

Distributed by ALPS Distributors, Inc. 1290 Broadway, Ste 1100, Denver, CO 80203 (Member FINRA)